Simulator · Monte Carlo trip risk

A Thousand Trips

Choose a place, a month, your days and the buffer days you booked. The simulator runs a thousand versions of your trip with weather, delays and cancellations drawn from the place’s parameters, and shows how many finished the plan, how many lost a day and how many turned back.

A plan is a single path through a set of probabilities. This simulator draws the path a thousand times: each day has a chance of weather loss from the rain days, each transfer a chance of delay from the remoteness score, each key activity a chance of cancellation from the realm. The histogram shows the distribution of days lost and the share of trips that completed the plan with your buffer.

Simulators

One place, one month, one calendarJourney SimulatorChoose a place, a month, the days you have and how you travel. The simulator lays out a day-by-day timeline with temperatures, daylight, sleeping altitude, effort and cost, and flags the days where the model gets nervous. Open

What the month does to the placeClimate SimulatorHighs, lows and rain days for all twelve months of any place, with a feels-like line, a clothing verdict and a side-by-side comparison of up to three places for the month you can travel. Open

Sunrise, sunset and the polar casesDaylight SimulatorAny latitude, any date: sunrise, sunset, day length, civil twilight and the golden hours, drawn as an arc. It knows about the midnight sun and the polar night, and it shows how fast the day changes around your dates. Open

The Simulation Brief

One place, one simulator, one honest number. Every second Sunday.

No newsletter theatre. A short e-mail with the place we modelled, what the model said and what the ground said back.